Guatemala at a New Institutional Crossroads:
Local Elections and the Future of the Justice System
By Juan Francisco Sandoval Guatemala is once again at a decisive moment for its democratic institutions. In recent months, several second-tier election processes have taken place or are currently underway, through which various state institutions appoint officials who will occupy key positions within the justice and electoral systems. Although these elections are not held by popular vote, their effects are profound and far-reaching: they determine the composition of bodies that have the power to interpret the Constitution, guarantee free elections, and oversee criminal prosecutions in the country. In theory, the constitutional design of these elections sought to create a balance among the different branches of government, preventing any single institution from concentrating too much influence over the appointment of officials. However, the experience of recent decades shows that these processes have also become arenas where political disputes, pressure from various power groups, and even attempts at institutional capture are played out. Several particularly relevant processes are currently underway or, in many cases, completed: the appointment of the Constitutional Court, the election of new magistrates to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal, the ongoing process to appoint the next Attorney General, and, in the academic sphere, the election of the Rector of the University of San Carlos de Guatemala. Each of these processes has direct implications for the functioning of the rule of law and for public trust in institutions. The Composition of the Constitutional Court One of the most visible processes in this election cycle has been the recent appointment of the Constitutional Court, the tribunal responsible for interpreting the Constitution and ensuring the protection of fundamental rights. The importance of this body within Guatemala’s institutional system cannot be overstated. Its rulings can determine the validity of laws, resolve conflicts between state bodies, and, in many cases, set limits on the exercise of public power. The Guatemalan Bar Association elected Astrid Lemus and Luis Fernando Bermejo as justices. This process was marked by a particularly troubling episode: the Public Prosecutor’s Office’s attempt to halt the election. Regardless of one’s assessment of the elected candidates, the fact that an institution responsible for criminal prosecution intervened in a professional association’s process reveals the climate of institutional tension currently gripping the country. For its part, the University Council of the University of San Carlos appointed Julia Rivera and Julio Aguirre. This election also raised significant questions, especially because a significant portion of the Council members’ terms had expired at the time of the vote. Various analyses indicated that at least twenty-seven members of the collegiate body were in that situation, which inevitably raises doubts about the legitimacy of the process. The appointment made by the Supreme Court of Justice, which went to Dina Ochoa and Claudia Paniagua, was also surrounded by controversy. Both were already members of the Constitutional Court, which was interpreted by some sectors as an attempt to ensure the continuity of certain power dynamics within the court. During the public debate, rumors also circulated about possible pressure or recommendations from international actors, particularly the United States, allegedly aimed at preserving an institutional balance that would prevent potential legal action against the current attorney general, Consuelo Porras. Although these rumors have never been officially confirmed, they reflect the level of mistrust surrounding the appointment processes for public officials in the country. The Congress of the Republic, in a prolonged and complex legislative session, elected Roberto Molina Barreto and Luis Rosales. The vote was the result of intense political negotiations among different congressional caucuses and was also accompanied by speculation about possible external pressure, particularly regarding the election of Molina Barreto. President Bernardo Arévalo appointed Gladys Annabella Morfín, a former solicitor general, and her alternate María Magdalena Jocholá, a Kaqchikel Maya lawyer and academic specializing in Indigenous issues. Beyond the controversies surrounding the appointment processes, it is inevitable to analyze the role that the Constitutional Court itself has played in recent years. Various rulings issued by both sitting and alternate justices have been criticized by social organizations, Indigenous communities, and academic circles. Among the most frequent criticisms are decisions that have supported or failed to prevent criminalization proceedings against justice officials, journalists, human rights defenders, and social leaders. Likewise, some rulings have been interpreted as setbacks regarding the rights of Indigenous peoples in their historical land claims, a particularly sensitive issue in a country marked by deep inequalities in land tenure. Setbacks have also been noted in the area of transitional justice, particularly in cases related to the internal armed conflict. Another aspect that raised concerns was the Court’s institutional response to the events that occurred during the 2023 electoral process. Various actions by the Public Prosecutor’s Office and Judge Fredy Orellana were widely questioned for their impact on the democratic process. However, the Constitutional Court did not adopt decisions that effectively curbed or reversed those actions, which fueled the perception of a lack of capacity or will to fully exercise its role as a guarantor of the constitutional order.
The Election of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal The country has also faced another crucial process: the election of new justices to the Supreme Electoral Tribunal. This process also raised significant concerns. The Special Mission of the OAS noted that the nominations committee had failed to interview all candidates for the position of TSE magistrate. Further, according to public reports, 10 of the 20 individuals shortlisted by the nominations committee whose names were passed on to Congress were rejected, in some cases amid allegations of corruption. On March 10, the Guatemalan Congress elected the five magistrates who are set to be members of the TSE with a six-year mandate. The composition of the Supreme Electoral Tribunal is a particularly sensitive matter. This institution is responsible for organizing electoral processes and ensuring that the will of the people expressed at the polls is respected. When trust in the electoral authority weakens, one of the fundamental pillars of democracy is also eroded.
The Election of the Next Attorney General The process to elect the next Attorney General and Head of the Public Prosecutor’s Office is underway. Fifty-nine candidates initially submitted their applications to the Nominating Commission. Of that total, ten were eliminated in the early stages of the process, so the Commission continues to evaluate the remaining applications. This process has also sparked intense public debate. The participation of individuals close to the current Attorney General, Consuelo Porras, has been highlighted, raising concerns about the possibility of perpetuating an institutional model that has faced strong criticism both within and outside the country. Some independent analyses have identified at least thirteen profiles classified as “red flag,” that is, candidates with significant concerns regarding their independence or professional integrity. Added to this is the controversy generated by the modification of the grading scale used to evaluate the candidates. In a context where the Public Prosecutor’s Office has faced national and international scrutiny, the election of the next Attorney General becomes a defining moment for the future of the Guatemalan justice system. The Election of the Rector of the University of San Carlos Finally, an important process is also underway at the University of San Carlos in Guatemala with the election of the rector. This process is conducted through thirty-four electoral bodies, each composed of five electors. According to the results known so far, twenty of these electoral bodies have been won by opposition sectors, eight are aligned with the current administration of Walter Mazariegos, and six remain in dispute or could face legal proceedings. The election of the rector of the country’s only public university has significance that transcends the academic sphere. Historically, the University of San Carlos has been a vital space for critical thinking, public debate, and the training of generations of professionals committed to the country’s development.
A Crossroads for Democracy Taken together, all these processes reflect a moment of high institutional tension. The decisions made in the coming months will directly influence the independence of the justice system, the credibility of electoral authorities, and the country’s democratic stability. Guatemala finds itself, once again, at a crossroads. Recent history shows that when institutions lose their independence or become subordinate to particular interests, the consequences are quickly reflected in a decline in public trust. Today more than ever, the country needs transparent processes and institutional decisions that serve the public interest. Restoring confidence in the Guatemalan justice system and democracy inevitably requires strengthening the independence of the institutions that are meant to protect them. | 
